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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 30, 2023

January 30, 2023 by Shaun Jacob

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 30, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on new and pending home sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

New home sales increase in December

The Commerce Department reported new home sales rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 616,000 sales in December as compared to the expected pace of 615,000  new homes sales and November’s revised reading of 602,000 annual sales. December was the third consecutive month that the pace of new home sales rose, but new home sales remained well below the 1.04 million sales peak reported in August 2020.

Pending home sales rose by 2.5 percent in December, which outpaced expectations of a one percent decrease in pending sales and November’s seasonally-adjusted annual decrease of  -2.6 percent in pending home sales. New home sales are 26.6 percent lower than they were one year ago.

Month-to-month inflation slows in December

The Commerce Department reported that month-to-month inflation rose by 0.1 percent in  December, which matched November’s month-to-month reading. Core inflation rose by 0.1 percent in December to 0.3 percent and matched analyst expectations. Core inflation readings exclude volatile food and fuel sectors that comprise major expenses for many U.S. households.

Year-over-year inflation rose by 5.0 percent in December as compared to November’s pace of 5.5 percent. Core inflation rose  4.4 percent in December, which matched analyst expectations, but fell short of November’s year-over-year reading of 4.7 percent for core inflation.

Mortgage rates, initial jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by two basis points to 6.13 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 11 basis points to 5.17 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 186,000 filings as compared to the expected reading of 205,000 initial jobless claims and the previous week’s reading of 192,000 new jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.68 million ongoing claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.66 million continuing jobless claims filed.

Consumer sentiment strengthens in January

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to an index reading of 64.9 in January, which surpassed the expected reading of 64.6 and December’s final index reading of 64.6. Readings over 50 indicate that a majority of consumers surveyed have a positive outlook on the economy. Falling gasoline prices contributed to an improved consumer outlook, but grocery prices remained high.

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on U.S. home prices, The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled press conference. Labor-sector reports on job growth and the national unemployment rate will also be released.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Case Shiller, Financial Report, Jobless Claims

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 23, 2023

January 23, 2023 by Shaun Jacob

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 23, 2023

Last week’s economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on U.S. housing markets, and Commerce Department data on housing starts and building permits issued. The National Association of Realtors® reported sales of previously owned homes, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Homebuilder Sentiment Rises in December

The National Association of Home Builders reported increased homebuilder confidence in U.S. housing market conditions in December; this was the first time in 12 months that homebuilder confidence rose. Builder confidence in current housing market conditions rose by four points; builder confidence in home sales conditions over the next six months increased by two points. Builder confidence in prospective buyer traffic in new housing developments rose by three points.

Jerry Konter, a Georgia home builder and chairman of NAHB, said: “It appears that the low point for building sent in this cycle was registered in December, even as many builders continue to use a variety of incentives including price reductions to bolster sales.  The rise in builder sentiment also means that cycle lows for permits and starts are likely near, and a rebound for homebuilding could be underway later in 2023.”

Robert Dietz, the NAHB’s chief economist, predicted that single-family home building will increase as mortgage rates are expected to trend lower and boost housing affordability. Mr. Dietz said, “Improved housing affordability will increase housing demand as the nation grapples with a structural housing deficit of 1.5 million units.”

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 18 basis points to 6.15 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.28 percent and were 24 basis points lower on average.

First-time jobless claims fell to 190,000 claims filed as compared to expectations of 215,000 initial claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 205,000 new jobless claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims increased to 1.65 million claims filed compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.63 million continuing jobless claims.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on new and pending home sales, consumer sentiment, and predictions on inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published. 

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Financial Report, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 9, 2023

January 9, 2023 by Shaun Jacob

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 9, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting and its customary post-meeting press conference, labor-sector data on public and private-sector jobs, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

FOMC Meeting: Policymakers seek a balance between high inflation and rising rates

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on December 13 and 14 reflect committee members’ concern over controlling rapidly growing inflation while avoiding a recession. While committee members said that they made “significant progress” in raising rates to cut inflation, members said they needed to avoid raising rates too fast and creating a recession. Policymakers asked for “flexibility” from investors and consumers.

The Fed’s monetary policy actions depend on economic developments; if high inflation persists, policymakers will likely continue raising the Fed’s target interest rate range. If inflation eases, so will the Fed’s pace of raising its target interest rate range. The Fed re-asserted its goal of achieving two percent inflationary growth. The meeting minutes emphasized that the Committee’s decision to slow the pace of interest rate growth did not indicate any changes to the Fed’s goal of two percent inflation.

Mortgage rates rise, jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by six basis points to 6.48 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was five basis points higher at 5.73 percent.

204,000 new jobless claims were filed last week, which fell short of the expected reading of 223,000 initial claims filed and the previous week’s reading, also of 223,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.69 million claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.72 million ongoing claims filed.

The national unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in December as compared to 3.6 percent n November and the expected unemployment rate of 3.7 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on month-to-month and year-over-year inflation and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Financial Report, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 2, 2023

January 2, 2023 by Shaun Jacob

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 2, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on U.S. housing markets, pending home sales, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices:  Month-to-moth home prices fall in October

U.S. home prices fell in October for the fourth consecutive month. Wavering demand for homes was caused by rising mortgage rates and high home prices in many regional markets. The 20-City home price index showed the top three cities with the highest month-to-month home price declines were Miami. Florida with a -1.0 percent decline, Tampa, Florida where home prices declined by -0,8 percent, and Charlotte, North Carolina where home prices dropped by -0.9 percent month-to-month in October.

Year-over-year home prices rose by 21 percent in Miami, Florida; year-over-year home prices rose by 20.5 percent in Tampa, Florida. Charlotte, North Carolina reported a year-over-year home price gain of 15.0 percent as of October.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home price growth was flat from September to October as compared to a month-to-month gain of 0.10 percent in September. Analysts said that high home prices and mortgage rates have decreased demand for homes as would-be buyers face affordability issues and strict mortgage credit requirements.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher fixed mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 6.42 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by one basis point to an average of 5.68 percent.

New jobless claims rose last week to 225,000 initial claims filed as compared to 216,000 initial claims filed in the previous week. Analysts expected a reading of 223,000 first-time jobless claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims rose last week with 1.71 million continuing jobless claims filed as compared to 1.67 million continuing jobless claims filed in the previous week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending, minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and public and private-sector jobs data. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Financial Report, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 26, 2022

December 26, 2022 by Shaun Jacob

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 26, 2022Last week’s economic scheduled economic news included readings on sales of previously-owned homes, housing starts,  and building permits issued. Readings on the Consumer Price Index, which tracks inflation, were also released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Sales of previously-owned homes fall in November

The National Association of Realtors® reported fewer sales of previously-owned homes in November than in October. 4.09 million previously-owned homes were sold year-over-year in November as compared to 4.43 million sales reported in October. This was the tenth consecutive month showing fewer sales of previously-owned homes. Although mortgage rates and home prices have eased recently, it will take additional time for would-be buyers to adjust their budgets during and after the winter holiday season.

The  Commerce Department reported 1.34 million building permits issued in November; analysts expected a reading of 1.48 million permits issued as compared to October’s reading of 1.51 million permits issued. The onset of winter weather typically impacts building permits issued and rising concerns about inflation and recession also sidelined home builders who took a “wait-and-see” position about current economic conditions.

Housing starts were unchanged in November with 1.43 million housing starts reported on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected a reading of 1.40 million starts in November.

Mortgage Rates. Inflation, and Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported mixed readings for average mortgage rates last week as the average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 6.27 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 5.69 percent.

Month-to-month inflation rose by 0.10 percent in November as compared to an increase of 0.40 percent in October. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 5.69 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.20 percent as compared to October’s month-to-month increase of 0.30 percent. Year-over-year inflation rose by 5.50 percent in November as compared to October’s year-over-year inflation rate of  6.10 percent.

216,000  first-time jobless claims were filed last week, which fell short of the expected reading of 220,000 initial claims filed but surpassed the prior week’s reading of  214,000 new jobless claims filed. The final consumer sentiment report for December showed an index reading of 59.7 as compared to the expected reading of 59.1 and November’s index reading of 59.1.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on U.S. housing markets, pending home sales, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. 

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Financial Report, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 19, 2202

December 19, 2022 by Shaun Jacob

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 19, 2202Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, retail sales, and the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  Fed Chair Jerome  Powell held his scheduled post-meeting press conference and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Federal Reserve Raises Target Interest Rate Range

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announced its decision to raise the Fed’s target interest rate range to 4.25 to 4.50 percent from its previous range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks made during his scheduled press conference, “We’re going into next year with higher inflation than we thought.” Seven Fed officials predicted rising interest rates with the Fed’s interest rate range potentially reaching 5.75 percent. Analysts said that the Fed’s position of controlling inflation at any cost could result in a recession. Chair Powell said it was impossible to predict if a recession would occur and how deep it might go and how long it could last. He repeated the Fed’s commitment to controlling high inflation.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims  Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower fixed mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by two basis points to 6.31 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by 13 basis points to 5.54 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell to 211,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 231,000 new jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were reported as unchanged from the prior week with 167,000 ongoing unemployment claims filed.

The Commerce Department reported lower retail sales in November than in October. Retail sales decreased by -0.6 percent in November, which surpassed analysts’ estimates of -0.3 percent. Lower retail sales could suggest an impending recession as consumers hold back on paying rapidly rising prices for non-essential goods and services.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders on U.S. housing markets and Commerce Department data on building permits issued and housing starts. Reports on sales of new and previously-owned homes and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Interest Rates, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

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